Vinton Cerf, who along with Robert Kahn is considered a founding father of the Internet due to his work on the Arpanet and design of the TCP/IP protocol was the first plenary speaker. He mentioned that he had recently purchased 1 TB of memory for $1000 and compared that to 10 MB of memory that he bought for $1000 in 1979. He calculated that 1 TB in 1979 would have cost $100,000. He noted that hardware has advanced much more quickly than software which was essential to Google success. He lamented the lack of student interest in engineering and computer science and wondered if global warming might be the catalyst for this generation's scientific innovation as Sputnik was for him and his generation.

Ray Kurzweil shared a graph of technology advances over time - exactly logarithmic since the beginning of life which supports the theory of accelerating returns. The graph is posted on wikipedia.

He shared some innovations that are in development that indicate the range of possibilities if this exponential rate of change really does continue: nanobots that perform isolated healing tasks, fat blocking with no side effects, a real-time language conversion (the Star Trek communicator - just a little behind schedule), cars driving without humans and software images being written directly onto our retinas. All of these projects are begun and Kurzweil expects their successful completion to be within our lifetimes.

It was interesting to consider the future - a much further future than I usually consider. And important to remind ourselves that we information technologists are essential role players in this game of innovation. To use language both of these men would understand (and perhaps some of you) "if you're not part of the solution you're part of the problem." Next time... how we can be part of the solution.

technorati tags: Educause2006