Ingrid
Weiss
4/14/05
GEO 206 Final Paper
International Energy Use; A Four Country Case Study
Abstract:
The
purpose of this paper is to look at the differences between four countries in
their energy use and their intended energy use, aka
their energy policies. The countries
highlighted in this paper are; The United States, China,
Greece and Tanzania. The more one understands why countries are
choosing the energy sources that they are choosing the more one can influence
these choices. The biggest energy
producers and consumers, the Untied States
and China, were
the ones who were divorced the least from fossil fuels and who were least
willing to consider alternative methods of energy. Greece
is a member of the European Union which has created long term renewable energy
goals for its’ members. Tanzania has a very poor
rural population and so does not have an energy grid in place, which makes it
more feasable to implement small renewable energy
projects.
Introduction:
The
United States, Greece,
China, and Tanzania
represent a very tiny sample of the countries in the world. However they give an interesting perspective
on how different countries are handling the surge in demand for energy. All of the countries have different natural
resources, different types of populations (urban/rural), different economies
and different governments. They are all
struggling to create an energy plan for the future that will be economically
and environmentally practical while still meeting all their energy needs. Greece
and Tanzania
both have created plans that include a signigficant
amount of renewable energy. The USA
is looking to create more nuclear power and become more energy efficient. China
is seeking to exploit its own natural resources efficiently.
Methods:
I
wanted to choose a small enough sample of countries so that I could go into a
fair amount of detail and the portrayal of the country would be more then
statistics. Yet I wanted a diverse
enough sample of countries of give a spectrum of different approaches to energy
use, resources and policy. I decided to
look at four countries; the United States,
Greece, China,
and Tanzania.
I
choose the USA
because it is where I live. Not only is
it where I live, but it is one of the wealthiest and most influential countries
in the world. Its’ policies have the
ability to effect the entire world because it is such a large energy producer
and consumer. I
choose China because
it has the largest population of any country in the world. It has a population of about of
1.28 billion. Its’ population is still growing rapidly. By 2030, the International Energy Agency
predicts China
will account for one-fifth of the world's total annual energy demand. I choose to research Greece
because I thought I should look at a country that was part of the European
Union. I picked Greece
from all the rest of the countries in the EU because I knew from previous
research that Greece’s
policies were very solar power friendly which I personally find interesting. I choose to research Tanzania
because it is technically a Least Developed Country(LDC). I am missing a country from South or Central
America, but since this is not a long paper, I had to choose
between a LDC and a country from that area and I decided that an LDC would
provide a more meaningful contrast.
Results and Discussion:
USA
It
is very important to study the United States’
current energy uses and policies as well as its future plans simply because the
United States
uses so much energy already. It has the
highest energy consumption of any country in the world.
Figure 1:
|
Rank
|
Country
|
Electricity - consumption
(kWh)
|
Date of Information
|
|
1
|
World
|
13,940,000,000,000
|
2001 est.
|
|
2
|
United States
|
3,602,000,000,000
|
2001
|
|
3
|
European Union
|
2,635,000,000,000
|
2001
|
|
4
|
China
|
1,312,000,000,000
|
2001
|
(http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/rankorder/2042rank.html)
In this
contemporary world of consumerism, all of the countries in the world have a
rapidly increasing demand for energy.
This demand for energy exceeds the supply of energy and to all accounts
the gap will only grow larger in the future. The USA
is an extremely large energy consumer because the standard of living is very
high. It is not surprising that the United States spends over 500 billion dollars annually on energy.
“Estimates indicate that over the next twenty years, U.S. oil
consumption will increase by 33 percent, natural gas consumption by well over
50 percent, and demand for electricity will rise by 45 percent,”(National
Energy Policy x). According to the National Energy Policy, (Report
of the National Energy Policy Development Group May 2001) the gap between the
energy supply and the energy demand is over 20 quadrillion Btus.
The US
is largely dependent on fossil fuels to supply its energy needs. This is problematic because it means that the
US is not self
sufficient. The country cannot supply
enough coal, oil, or gas to meet its’ own needs so we must import from foreign
sources. This makes the country more
vulnerable and affects the country’s foreign policy. Not only are fossil fuels a bad fuel source
because of their scarcity in the United States,
but because they are not a renewable energy source, eventually they will run
out. Another problem with dependence on
fossil fuels, is that they are bad for the
environment. The US
is the largest single emitter of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil
fuels. The US
did not sign the Kyoto Treaty, which regulates emissions.
Figure 2: Share of Total Primary Energy
Supply* in 2002
IEA Energy Statistics Statistics on the Web: http://www.iea.org/statist/index.htm
Nuclear 9.2%
Hydro 0.9%
Comb. renew. & waste
3.0%
Geothermal/solar/wind
0.5%
Coal 23.7%
Oil 39.3%
Gas 23.5%
The US
plans to increase and diversify energy sources.
The government is hoping to utilize more domestic oil, gas, and coal,
hydropower and nuclear power, greater use of non-hydro renewable source. This is a huge task considering the enormous
amount of energy we use and the huge dependence we have on foreign oil.
Figure 2: US Oil
and Natural Gas Use 2001
|
Oil Production
|
8.054 million bbl/day
|
|
Oil Consumption
|
19.65 million bbl/day
|
|
Oil Exports
|
NA
|
|
Oil Imports
|
NA
|
|
Oil proved reserves
|
22.45 billion bbl
|
When the average United States citizen speaks of fossil fuel they are thinking of oil
and gas that we use for our cars.
However the percentage distribution of fuel sources for our electricity
shows that that is not our only worry.
The United States is also greatly dependent on the fossil fuel coal
for electricity. While it is not
developed, many say that the United States has the enough coal resources so that they would
not have to import. This does not solve
the environmental problems that coal presents.
Figure
3: Fuel Sources for Electricity in US
2000
Greece
Unlike
the United States,
Greece does not
have a large impact on world energy consumption. Greece’s
total energy consumption is only .3% of the world’s total energy consumption (1.38
Btu in 2002). (http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/greece.html) However, like the United States Greece is
experiencing a rapid growth in consumption.
If Greek consumption continues with its current patterns it could triple
over the next ten years. Also, similarly
to the United States,
Greece is
facing the problems of extensive use of foreign fossil fuels to meet its high
demand for energy.
Figure 4: Share of Total Primary Energy
Supply* in 2002
IEA Energy Statistics Statistics on the Web: http://www.iea.org/statist/index.htm
Coal 31.2%
Oil 57.5%
Gas 6.3%
Hydro 0.8%
Comb. renew.
& waste
3.6%
Geothermal/solar/wind
0.6%
Figure 4:
A more detailed ENERGY OVERVIEW
Fuel Share of Energy Consumption (2002E): Oil (62.2%), Coal (28.5%), Natural Gas
Proven Oil Reserves (1/1/04E): 6 million barrels
Oil Production (2003E): 6,400 barrels per day (bbl/d), of which 2,830
bbl/d was crude oil
Oil Consumption (2003E): 429,000 bbl/d
Net Oil Imports (2003E): 422,600 bbl/d
Major Crude Oil Import Sources: Persian Gulf OPEC, Russia, Libya, Egypt
Natural Gas Reserves (1/1/04E): 35 billion cubic feet (Bcf)
Natural Gas Production (2002E): 1.0 Bcf
Natural Gas Consumption (2002E): 77 Bcf
Coal Reserves (2002E): 3,168 million short tons (all lignite)
Coal Production (2002E): 75.0 million short tons (Mmst)
Coal Consumption (2002E): 76.4 Mmst
**GDP based on CIA World Factbook estimates based on
purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates.
In 2002,
all of Greece’s
heat was produced by Lignite. Lignite ("brown coal"),
is the only significant fossil fuel source in Greece. Greece's lignite reserves total 3,168 million short tons (Mmst). Over 60% of Greece's electricity is generated through the combustion of
domestic lignite, an industry that produces 74,957 thousand short tons a year
(2002). Burning
coal creates a lot of air pollution.
One of the more
recent changes in Greece’s
energy policy is the signing of the Kyoto Protocal. Greece's
greenhouse gas (GHG) emission target for the first commitment period(2008-1012) is set at 25% above 1990. In 2000, Greece's
energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, were 24% over
the 1990 level. In 2002 Greece’s
carbon dioxide emissions were 104.39 million metric tons which is about .4% of
the world’s emissions. Greece
is attempting to meet the guidelines set for it in the Kyoto Protocol by
placing greater emphasis on the efficiency of energy end-use, which means
creating appliances that use less energy to create the same result. The Greek
government is trying to achieve this end by promoting third party financing of
energy efficiency projects. They are
hoping to begin projects like improving public transport, through the introduction
of natural-gas powered buses. Greece is also part of the European Automotive program,
which requires signatories to mandate at least a 30% increase in the fuel
economy of all new vehicles by 2010.
The European Union has been pushing renewable energy in a way that
is very productive. European Union guidelines state that member states must
increase their percentage of renewables in
electricity production to reach 12% by 2005. Greece has decided to raise the bar for itself. This new mandate by the Greek
Regulatory Authority of Energy (RAE), is targeting an
increase in the production of renewable energy resources from the current 5.9
percent to upwards of 20 percent of total energy production in Greece
by the year 2010. That is a huge expectation. In outlining
it's guidelines for deregulation, RAE has mandated that some 14,000 MW of a
total of 19,000 MW of new production capacity must be produced using renewable
energy. In support of this new energy
policy, the Greek Ministry of Development plans to spend over $5 billion on its
2001-2006 master energy development program. As
would be expected, as a result of this mandate, renewable electricity
generation projects are on the rise in Greece. The government created a Centre for Renewable Energy
Sources (CRES), housed under the Development Ministry, which was created to
promote renewable energy. The CRES
estimates that 15% of the country's electricity needs can be produced by wind
farms. Wind farms are already located on
a number of Greek islands (Crete, Evia, Andros, Samos, etc.).
The EU is also pushing Greece to use more photovoltaic energy technology. Photovoltaic (PV) technology in Greece has tripled in the last three years. The EU indicated in a report entitled "Photovoltaics 2010" that the nation has enough
potential to meet one-third of its energy requirements using PV. A 50-MW
parabolic trough-type solar power plant, the first grid-connected large scale
solar system, was recently constructed in Crete.
In late 2003, construction began on the
first Greek PV manufacturing plant to have an initial production of 5 MW. Greece has approved licenses for more than 1,800 MW of
renewable installed capacity. However,
many of the planned projects have stalled because local residents are concerned
about the large amounts of land required for the plants.
Greece is a very favorable location for solar power as it
has more then 300 hundred sunny days a year.
Greece has the second-largest number of solar-collectors in Europe
(after Germany). Twenty percent of households use solar water heaters(about 800,000 houses). Greece leads Europe in the production and export of solar heaters. The
Greek market was estimated at $95 million in 2000 and is dominated by domestic
producers. In August 2004, ECO//SUN
installed the largest rooftop solar-energy unit in Athens. It was placed on top of a German school in the Greek capital,
the 33-kilowatt unit is predicted to prevent the city from emitting over 24
tons of carbon dioxide each year.
Another
program aimed at advancing the prospects of renewable energy in Greece
is the European Commission's recently prepared, 'Community Strategy and Action
Plan’. It which aims to double the
production of renewable energy by member states by the year 2010. The
Commissions "Campaign for Renewable Energy," is
targeting the installation of 15 million square meters of solar collectors
within the European Union by the year 2004 and more than 50 million square
meters by the year 2010. Of this total, the EU Commission envisions roughly 5
million square meters of solar collectors will be installed in Greece.
Part of what Greece
is counting on to successfully implement its new renewable energy programs is
funding from both the private and public sector. The Greek Public Power Corporation (PPC), has announced a program for the development of renewable
energy sources as part of the electricity utility's 10-year Development
Plan. PPC’s
investments in new renewable energy installations are expected to increase the
total amount of energy produced by renewable energy sources in Greece
by 85%. Third Community Support Framework and private sector funds will finance
many of these renewable energy investments in the PPC program.
China:
China
is the third greatest energy producer in the world. It contributes about 9.5% of the world's
annual total energy production. China
is also the second greatest energy consumer (behind the United
States), accounting for nearly 10% of the
world's total annual energy consumption. China's
energy demand has been greatly increasing. Annual electricity consumption in China
is projected to reach nearly 2 trillion kWh by 2010 and nearly
3 trillion kWh by 2020. It is expected to grow at about 5.5% per year
through the year 2020. Unlike the United
States and Greece,
China has also
experienced huge growth in its electricity generation, more than doubling its
annual generation during the 1990s.
Although similar
to the United States
in terms of the amount of energy it uses, China
does not have the resources in place in the government that the US
does. The Energy Bureau is only one of
over 20 sub departments under the State Development and Reform Commission. The
National Statistical Bureau has only three people to handle energy data. In
comparison, the United States
has employs 14,000 in the Department of Energy, of which about 2,000 staff map
out policy and 600 collect and analyze data.
China
is facing the same problems of rapidly increasing demand and the increasing
impracticality of fossil fuels as the US, but it has a lot less financial
resources to deal with it. However, it
also has less of a history as it has experienced this growth more recently then
the US. China
has less of an energy infrastructure in place.
To cope with the nation’s energy demands, China
has outlined goals to boost the use of natural gas and renewable energy
resources, balance the use of coal with steps to clean up the environment and
prioritize conservation measures. It
also wants to create strategic oil reserves as its dependence on imported oil
grows. (http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6405467)
Figure 5: People's Republic of China
Share of Total Primary Energy Supply* in 2002
IEA Energy Statistics Statistics
on the Web: http://www.iea.org/statist/index.htm
* Share of TPES excludes electricity trade.
Coal 57.6%
Oil 19.6%
Gas 2.6%
Nuclear 0.5%
Hydro 2.0%
Comb. renew.
& waste 17.7%
National goals in
the energy sector are codified in China's
Five-Year Plans. In its 10th Five-Year Plan, covering the period from 2001 to
2005, China
plans to dramatically increase the share of hydropower and natural gas in its
energy resources. This will necessitate construction of pipelines and
terminals, as well as many more hydroelectric facilities. And much more is
needed: China's
10th Five Year Plan (amended) has set an electricity generation target of
1,945 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) by 2005, which requires an average
annual growth rate of more than 5%.
Also
unlike the United States
and Greece, China
has more of an option to use fossil fuels.
China's
proven oil reserves were estimated at 24 billion barrels (sixth greatest
in the world) as of January 2002. China
is presently the world's greatest coal producer and accounts for nearly 28% of
the world's total annual coal production. China
is also the world's greatest coal consumer, accounting for more than 26% of the
world's total annual coal consumption. Domestically, coal currently accounts for around
two-thirds of China's
total energy use. Coal fuels 70-80% of
power generation, 75% of energy used in industry, and 80% of household
energy. The demand for coal is expected
to increase by 20 million short tons annually over the next five years and
China plans to
increase coal production by about 17% within five years.
The environmental
pollution caused by the burning of the coal has placed seven Chinese cities in
the World Health Organization's (WHO) 1998 list of the top ten most polluted
cities in the world. About 30% of China's
territory is affected by acid rain. China is currently responsible for slightly
more than one-eighth of the world's total fossil fuel-based carbon emissions,
which means that it is ranked second in the world behind the United States. China
has ratified the 1997 Kyoto Protocol as one of the Non-Annex I
Parties. That means that China
does not have to meet the emission goals set for it. This is a serious issue for China
because fossil fuel-related emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) in China
have increased by more than one-third from 1990 levels.
China has tremendous hydroelectric resources, the largest
in the world. Some people estimate that the total hydroelectric potential could be as
much as 300,000 Mwe. Slightly under
20% of China's electricity is now generated from hydroelectric
sources. As of January 2001, China's estimated installed hydroelectric capacity totaled
about 79,000 MWe, and Chinese government
estimates forecast this figure to climb to 100,000 MWe
by 2005. The 10th Five Year Plan calls for a 48% rise in hydropower production
by 2005.
Tanzania:
The US is number one on the list of energy consumers. In contrast, Tanzania is 118th on the World Fact Book’s list of energy
consumers. It consumed about 2.75
billion kWh in the year 2001. The crisis
in Tanzania is the same as every country, but the way it
manifests itself is different and much more immediate then in more developed
countries. Tanzania is meeting its’ energy crisis with biomass
energy. It is using wood as a fuel
source. Only 6% of the population is
served by the grid. Tanzania's energy requirements are derived mainly
from wood-fuel which account for up to 90% of its total energy supply with 3%
from hydro-electricity, and about 7% from oil-derived products.
Figure 6: United Republic of Tanzania
Share of Total Primary Energy Supply* in 2002
Coal 0.4%
Oil 7.3%
Hydro 1.6%
Comb. renew. & waste:
90.7%
Not only are Tanzanians using wood
as a primary food source, but it is a staple in other aspects of their life as
well. Trees provide around 75 per cent of building materials, 100 per
cent of indigenous medicinal and supplementary food products, and 95 per cent
of Tanzania's
energy. Thus Tanzanians are rapidly
deforesting the country. The United Nations Conference on
Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reports that forest cover has declined from 48
per cent in 1980 to 46 per cent in 1989 and 37 per cent in 1994.
According to a public statement by Philemon Luhajo,
the permanent secretary in the Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism, about
between 30,000 and 50,000 hectares of forest are lost annually.
Deforestation is a serious
problem that effects entire enviromental
systems. According to the report, rivers run dry for part of the year primarily
because of deforestation rather than climate change. Totally substituting
charcoal with liquefied petroleum gas would confer an annual environmental
benefit on Tanzania
worth something between US$12 million and US$160 million. (It is important to
remember that it is very hard to quanitfy the
environmental benifet in terms of money.) “If deforestation trends continue, water catchment areas will be reduced by 50 per cent in Tanzania, leading to a quadrupling of the cost of water by the
year 2020, says a recent independent study.”- Zephaniah Musendo
(http://www.transparency.org/pressreleases_archive/1998/1998.06.12.tanzania-iptl.html)
Tanzania’s
National Energy Policy Objectives are to exploit and use the country’s abundant
indigenous resources, like coal hydroelectricity, and natural gas. Currently the commercial energy in Tanzania
is supplied by coal, natural gas and hydropower but so little of the population
has access to commercial energy that wood fuel still accounts for majority of
energy consumption. About 80 percent of
the population lives in very rural areas.
The Tanzanian government wants to, as every government has said so far,
to reduce their dependence on imported petroleum products. They want to use their wood fuel in a
sustainable and ecologically sound manner.
They want to develop indigenous manpower capacity in the development of
the energy sector. Tanzania is endowed with diverse energy sources
including biomass, natural gas, hydropower, coal, geothermal, solar and wind
power, much of which is untapped. Government policies are directed at petroleum
product substitution by exploiting indigenous resources.
Because of the lack of an energy grid in place, Tanzania is also finding it
practical to concentrate on small renewable energy projects. One of the
projects being promoted is biogas production for cooking, improved technologies
(cook stoves and kilns). They are looking for ways to introduce solar
thermal applications for water heating and cooking. The problem for Tanzania is that unlike Greece there is no money to fund these projects. Tanzania is in the process of implementing a National Solar Programme under the World Solar Programme (WSP). (The WSP is an
open-ended attempt through broad partnerships and cooperation of Governments
and NGO organizations to promote the wider use of renewable energy resources.) Government has declared two of its
five project proposals submitted to UNESCO as being of high national priority. These are: village
level solar electrification and small islands solar electrification.
Conclusion:
In
conclusion, all of the countries are facing an energy crisis. They are all using fuels that are damaging to
the environment and will be eventually gone.
All the countries are aware that this is a problem. The steps that they are willing to take to
solve this problem are not all that different because they have the same goals. They all want to lose their dependence on
foreign fossil fuels. The methods that
they choose to accomplish this goal are different. It is interesting that Greece
in conjunction with the European Union is the most actively pursuing renewable
energy. It shows that organizations
like the European Union are effective in regulating energy. Tanzania
is also interested in renewable. This is
important because it shows that there is an opportunity to develop renewable
technology in countries that do not have the existing energy infrastructure
that the US
does. It is interesting that the two
largest energy consumers and producers of this paper are less willing to use renewables.
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http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/rankorder/2042rank.html
